It’s all going to change ! , that’s the message coming from the BHA about Saturday ( ITV ) racing. For too long now the quality and field sizes for what is supposed to be prime time racing has been rather low on both counts. The aim of this service when I started it some 5 or so years ago was with the expectation that quality racing would be a premium betting product and that would lead to profit. Indeed over the 5 years I have made over 500pts profit with a tip in every race shown on ITV in that time ,which by any standards is some going. But in recent months it has been extremely hard to keep this going & I feel that the approach needs to change with the times and the way racing is now being shown with what’s on offer. With that in mind I am going to just give advice for each race and then a tip if I feel it is worth betting on myself at the end
Haydock 1.15 Equilatera looks sure to be popular with Frankie on board and indeed does take a class drop. He looked a big danger to the winner last time out over C&D and has the best draw , so a clear chance , tho is a slow starter sometimes . Regional made all last time out and is likely to try and do so again. Prince Of Pillo of all these in the unexposed angle , but the slow starts have to be a worry in this company. Raasel seems to be a light of former days & Clarendon House looked to have the race won last time out before folding worryingly. Fine Wine is another speed merchant , so the pace should be solid
Haydock 1.50 Mr Wagyu has the best of the draw & is the right favourite , but he is getting no younger and I thought the race last time at Epsom was there for the taking but he didn’t get the job done and that worries me. All The King’s Men is another who seems adverse to getting the job done & is 6f ideal ? I think those two might be vulnerable but with what ? Emperor Spirit has Dettori booked which catches the eye & Devils Angel has C&D form , maybe those two could sneak a place with bookmakers enchanted place markets
Beverley 2.05 I think this & the next race at Beverley typify the uncompetitive and low quality of the conversation at the start of this. Midnight Affair is odds on in most places and its not hard to see what after what looks a good debut run , but a note of caution is that the form looks very ordinary with no winners coming out since. Ziggy’s Phoenix brings the best form. Of the rest its a complete guessing game and a race to watch not to bet in for me
Haydock 2.25 A competitive race if nothing else . I can see why Cumulonimbus is at the head of the market , but at 7’2 & lower is no value whatsoever & this is a step up in class. Live Your Dream could be interesting off the back of a layoff & certainly has the back form. Cosmic Desert is an ex Godolphin cast off bought for a tidy sum & you would think if connections are paying that sum then they must thing ability retains
Beverley 2.40 A 0-80 class 4 has no place on a prime time ITV slot in my view and it’s a race not worth bothering with in truth. Min Till is on a mark that she can be competitive from at a price , but no idea about the jockey.
Haydock 3.00 Another small field graded race and it is a bit surprising to see Modaara so short in the betting. She won an egg and spoon novice last time out easily, but how that makes her the price she is mystifying to me. Time Lock & Mimikyu are the form horses with both having solid graded profiles & should be the ones to focus on
Beverley 3.15 This race has the look of a stick a pin and hope for the best type of race. All runners are open to some sort of improvement and probably the betting will be the best guide nearer the off time
Haydock 3.35 Yet another small field graded race which makes for very little betting appeal. I did think Boardman was a bit impressive last time out , but the rest have been out of form or are lights of former days
A very poor days ITV action and not one I will be focusing to much on. The closest I game to a bet was Emperor Spirit in the Haydock 1.50 , some firms are offering 5 places which seems fair value given the open nature of the race. So if you can get those extra paces ( I can’t sadly ) 1/4 pt ew at 16’1 with 5 places might reward those that can ( Sky Bet / William Hill )